A mix of perfect seasonal conditions and strong prices in the cotton sector could see next years cotton crop grow into one of the largest on record for the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area.
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CEO of Rivcott Ginning, Sam Buster said that the 2022/23 cotton crop was looking promising for a multitude of reasons.
"Many cotton growers have full water storages after lots of winter rainfall and any growers who have licenses to capture high flows have been able to utilise them" Mr Buster said.
"Cotton prices are also at a historical all time high which bodes well for cotton being a favoured crop over other competing crops."
Research released by agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank noted that the positive outlook for cotton was a sure thing as long as cotton farmers were able to get crop into the ground for the upcoming planting season.
Senior commodity analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon from Rabobank said there would be 'no catches for cotton', with high end forecasts ranging anywhere from a 49 to 80 percent increase year on year.
"The high end of these forecasts would bring planted hectares near the fourth largest on record - a welcome second year of improvement after 2019/20, which was the second lowest planted area in 40 years" Mrs Gordon said.
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According to Mrs Gordon, a 4.5 million bales was a reasonable expectation for next years crop.
However there will still be challenges ahead, as unpredictable weather patterns continue to eventuate across the country.
"The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting a 70 percent chance of above average rainfall across all cotton-growing regions between now and November" Mrs Gordon said.
"The real challenge might be getting cotton planted in wet conditions and then ensuring the shine shines over the growing season" she continued.
According to Mr Buster, cotton growers were benefitting significantly from the rollover of water from the winter months, with farmers now able to plan up to three years in advance due to good cotton pricing.
Rabobank estimated that whilst prices were likely to step down into 2022, they would still remain 10 percent above the five year average of around USc 80/lb.
"Our expectation that the AUD will trade in the range of USc 73 to USc 74 in Q1 2022 supports Australian cash prices trading around AUD 580 per bale in 2022" Mrs Gordon said.
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